A model for regional analysis of carbon sequestration and timber production

The greenhouse effect is one of our most severe current environmental problems. Forests make up large ecosystems and can play an important role in mitigating the emissions of CO2, the most important greenhouse gas. Different management regimes affect the ability of forests to sequester carbon. It is important to investigate in what way we best can use forests to mitigate the greenhouse effect. It is also important to study what effect different actions, done to increase carbon sequestration, have on other offsets from forestry, such as the harvest level, the availability of forest biofuel and economic factors. In this study, we present an optimization model for analysis of carbon sequestration in forest biomass and forest products at a local or regional scale. The model consists of an optimizing stand-level simulator, and the solution is found using linear programming. Carbon sequestration was accounted for in terms of carbon price and its value computed as a function of carbon price and the net carbon storage in the forest. The same price was used as a cost for carbon emission originating from deterioration of wood products. We carried out a case study for a 3.2 million hectare boreal forest region in northern Sweden. The result showed that 1.48–2.05 million tonnes of carbon per year was sequestered in the area, depending on what carbon price was used. We conclude that assigning carbon storage a monetary value and removal of carbon in forest products as a cost, increases carbon sequestration in the forest and decreases harvest levels. The effect was largest in areas with low site-quality classes

An integrated MCDA software application for forest planning : a case study in southwestern Sweden

Forest planning in Sweden today translates not only into planning of timber production, but also for the provision of other functions and services. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods provide a way to take also non-monetary values into account in planning. The purpose of this study was to gain experience on how to use a forest decision support system combined with an MCDA tool in practical forestry. We used a new forest planning tool, PlanWise, which includes an integrated MCDA module, PlanEval. Using the software, the decision maker can compare different forest plans and evaluate them against his/her objectives in a structured and analytical manner. The analysis thus provides a ranking of the alternatives based on the individual preferences of the decision maker. PlanEval and the MCDA planning process are described in a case study, where the manager of a forest estate in southwestern Sweden used the program to compare different forest plans made for the estate. In the paper, we analyze possibilities and challenges of this approach and identify problems such as the adherence to formal requirements of MCDA techniques and the difficulty of comparing maps. Possibilities to expedite an MCDA planning process further are also discussed. The findings confirm that integration of an MCDA tool with a forest decision support system is valuable, but requires expert assistance to be successful

The multi-faceted Swedish Heureka forest decision support system: context, functionality, design, and 10 years experiences of its use

For several decades, computerized forest decision support systems (DSS) have helped managers and decision makers to analyze different management options and supported the search for preferred management alternatives. In Sweden, a country rich in forests and with a long tradition in intensive forest management, such systems have been developed and available since the 1970s. Changes in societal as well as in forest owners' preferences and objectives in the 1990s led to a need for forest DSS handling broader perspectives compared to precedent single-objective timber-oriented systems. In Sweden, this led to the initiation of a research programme in the beginning of the 2000s aiming at developing a versatile and multi-objective forest DSS, resulting in the first version of the Heureka forest DSS released in 2009. The system handles several forest values, such as timber and biofuel production, carbon sequestration, dead wood dynamics, habitat for species, recreation and susceptibility to forest damages (spruce bark beetle, wind-throw and root rot). It contains a suite of software for different problem settings and geographical scales and uses simulation as well as optimization techniques. Three software handle projections of the forest using a common core of growth and yield models for simulating forest dynamics. A fourth software, built for multi-criteria decision analysis and including a web-version, enables also group decision making and participatory planning. For more than 10 years, the Heureka system has been used in teaching, environmental analysis, research and as decision support in practical forestry. For example, several research groups using the system for analyses in different problem areas have so far published more than 80 scientific papers. The system is used for nation-wide forest impact analysis for policy support and all large and many medium-sized forest owners use it for their long-term forest planning, meaning that it directly influences forest management decisions and activities on more than 50% of the Swedish forest area. Besides presenting the present system and its use, we also discuss lessons learned and potential future development

Economics and productivity in selection harvesting in Norway spruce stands in Sweden

This report is a summary of results from a study (Wikström 2008) carried out within the project “Kontinuitetsskogar och kontinuitetsskogsbruk” (“Ancient woodlands and continuous cover forestry”) headed by the Swedish National Board of Forestry. This short version is written on behalf of the Baltic Forest project, WP2 (www.balticforest.net). The purpose of the study was to compare two types of management systems for Norway spruce, selection harvesting and even-aged management, with respect to economic value and growth. To do this, analysis were done using a stand management growth-and-yield model. Mature forest stands were the starting point for analysis, stands that could be clear-cut immediately if only economics goals apply, but where selective harvesting may be an alternative. The reasons for not clear-cutting may vary; they could be aesthetic, recreational or to promote certain species threatened by even-aged management. The question is what the consequences are with respect to economy and productivity for a forest owner who chooses, for some reason, to apply a less intensive form of management than clear-cutting followed by a new plantation regime

Solving stand-level planning problems that involve multiple criteria and a single-tree growth model

Today’s forestry faces a complex situation where one must consider not only economic profit but also non-marketed values such as biological diversity, recreation and aesthetics. This thesis presents a new method to help answer the question: How should we manage a stand or a forest in order to meet some stated objective? This objective may include a variety of values. The values dealt with in this thesis are related to economic efficiency and biological diversity, but other values that can be described numerically, directly or indirectly, and integrated into a growth-and-yield model could be considered as well. The thesis is comprised of four papers. The first, which deals with even-aged management, develops and analyses a solution method for stand-level planning that incorporates concerns for biological diversity. The model is based on Tabu search and greedy heuristics in conjunction with a single-tree growth-and-yield model. This solution method is used again to deal with uneven-aged management in the second paper. The third paper shows that computational efficiency can be improved considerably by a proper choice of decision variables, simplification of the solution procedure and data aggregation. The last paper describes a column generation procedure that integrates stand-level optimisation into a forest-level planning problem. The stand-level planning model presented enables analysis of a wide range of objectives and constraints. The model is suggested as an analysis framework for deriving managerial guidelines or as a generator of stand-level plans in forestlevel planning. Economically efficient measures can be found to preserve or create stand structures and elements that are associated with an increased biological diversity. Indirectly, such measures can be related to a monetary cost by comparison with a case that has a purely economic objective

Modeling carbon sequestration and timber production in a regional case study

Forests make up large ecosystems and by the uptake of carbon dioxide can play an important role in mitigating the greenhouse effect. In this study, mitigation of carbon emissions through carbon uptake and storage in forest biomass and the use of forest biofuel for fossil fuel substitution were considered. The analysis was performed for a 3.2 million hectare region in northern Sweden. The objective was to maximize net present value for harvested timber, biofuel production and carbon sequestration. A carbon price for build-up of carbon storage and for emissions from harvested forest products was introduced to achieve an economic value for carbon sequestration. Forest development was simulated using an optimizing stand-level planning model, and the solution for the whole region was found using linear programming. A range of carbon prices was used to study the effect on harvest levels and carbon sequestration. At a zero carbon price, the mean annual harvest level was 5.4 million m3, the mean annual carbon sequestration in forest biomass was 1.48 million tonnes and the mean annual replacement of carbon from fossil fuel with forest biofuel was 61 000 tonnes. Increasing the carbon price led to decreasing harvest levels of timber and decreasing harvest levels of forest biofuel. Also, thinning activities decreased more than clear-cut activities when the carbon prices increased. The level of carbon sequestration was governed by the harvest level and the site productivity. This led to varying results for different parts of the region

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